Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 5% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.