Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 4% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -3 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized …