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What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

20 outcomes · ranked

$1.6M traded
↓ 3.25%
15%
↑ 4.25%
13%
↑ 4.5%
8%
↓ 3.0%
6%
↓ 1.25%
5%
↑ 4.75%
5%
↓ 0.5%
5%
↓ 0.25%
5%
↓ 1.0%
5%
↓ 0.75%
5%
↓ 1.5%
5%
↓ 1.75%
5%

Probability over time

last 30 days
26%↓ 3.25% · -11 pts over period15%

What this means

Across 20 outcomes, the market's favourite is ↓ 3.25% at 15%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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