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Iran leader end of 2026?

24 outcomes · ranked

$18.2M traded
Mojtaba Khamenei
83%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
3%
No Head of State
2%
Alireza Arafi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
0%
Sadegh Larijani
0%
Hassan Khomeini
0%
Hassan Shariatmadari
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
73%Mojtaba Khamenei · +10 pts over period83%

What this means

Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is Mojtaba Khamenei at 83%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over th…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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