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Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Very unlikely

-4 pts$10.4M traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
14%Yes · -7 pts over period7%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 7% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -4 pts.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territ…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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