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US military action against Cuba by...?

Leaning no

-5 pts$6.8M traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
40%Yes · -5 pts over period35%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 35% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -5 pts.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether t…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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