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Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

3 outcomes · ranked

$1.6M traded
December 31
75%
October 31
66%
August 31
26%

Probability over time

last 30 days
49%December 31 · +26 pts over period75%

What this means

Across 3 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31 at 75%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, i…

Resolves: Aug 31, 2026

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