Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 34% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -11 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.