Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 12% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -3 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.