Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 48% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. It's close to a coin flip, so the crowd genuinely isn't sure. Over the last 7 days the odds moved +19 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.