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Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

3 outcomes · ranked

$2.8M traded
December 31
49%
November 30
36%
October 31
21%

Probability over time

last 30 days
26%December 31 · +23 pts over period49%

What this means

Across 3 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31 at 49%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announ…

Resolves: Nov 1, 2026

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