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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

5 outcomes · ranked

$10.9M traded
December 31
21%
October 31
13%
September 30
9%
September 15
3%
August 31
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
34%December 31 · -14 pts over period21%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31 at 21%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. R…

Closed Jun 30, 2026 · awaiting resolution

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