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GeopoliticsTrumpYemenMilitary

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

4 outcomes · ranked

$1.8M traded
October 15
99%
October 18
95%
October 31
86%
November 30
55%

Probability over time

last 30 days
84%October 15 · +15 pts over period99%

What this means

Across 4 outcomes, the market's favourite is October 15 at 99%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed f…

Resolves: Oct 31, 2026

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