Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
14%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 14% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -2 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
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