Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
12 outcomes · ranked
$1.6M tradedSomaliland
16%
Lebanon
9%
Azerbaijan
8%
Jordan
8%
Syria
7%
Saudi Arabia
7%
Egypt
6%
Kuwait
6%
Qatar
5%
Oman
4%
Turkey
4%
Pakistan
4%
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 12 outcomes, the market's favourite is Somaliland at 16%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
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