Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
5%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 5% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -4 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027