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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima

Very unlikely

$939K traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
50%Yes · -49 pts over period1%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 1% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.

How this resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Brandon Nakashima in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Alexander Bublik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolv…

Resolves: Oct 19, 2026Source of truth: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

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