Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 2% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if LeBron James retires from the NBA before the start of the 2026-2027 NBA season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement from James that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred, as long as the announced retirement is stated to take effect before the start of the 2026-2027 NBA season. Announcements that he will retire after the start of the 2026-2027 NBA season will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from LeBron James, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.