Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 37% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
In a civil complaint filed in September 2026, a Cornell University student alleged that she was drugged and sexually assaulted in October 2024 by multiple members of the Chi Phi fraternity at the fraternity's house in Ithaca, New York. Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris and Scott Kretzschmar are the 7 individual defendants alleged in the September 2026 civil complaint to have participated in the alleged October 2024 sexual assault. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris or Scott Kretzschmar with a felony sex crime between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A felony se…