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Bank of Canada Decision in October?

5 outcomes · ranked

$182K traded
No Change
81%
25 bps increase
18%
50+ bps increase
0%
50+ bps decrease
0%
25 bps decrease
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
65%No Change · +16 pts over period81%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is No Change at 81%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is chan…

Resolves: Oct 28, 2026Source of truth: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates

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