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EconomyBOJEconomyJapan

Bank of Japan Decision in July?

5 outcomes · ranked

$114K traded
No change
97%
25 bps increase
2%
50+ bps increase
1%
50+ bps decrease
0%
25 bps decrease
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
89%No change · +8 pts over period97%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is No change at 97%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as…

Resolves: Jul 31, 2026

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