Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 99% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward yes, though it's far from settled. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.