Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
47%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 47% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. It's close to a coin flip, so the crowd genuinely isn't sure. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -2 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027