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ECB Interest Rates: July 2026

5 outcomes · ranked

$235K traded
No change
100%
25 bps Increase
0%
25 bps decrease
0%
50+ bps decrease
0%
50+ bps increase
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
81%No change · +19 pts over period100%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is No change at 100%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded accordin…

Resolves: Jul 23, 2026

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