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Tech & AIAITechgpt

GPT-5.6 released by...?

9 outcomes · ranked

$3.3M traded
July 31
99%
July 24
96%
July 17
94%
July 15
89%
July 13
86%
July 10
81%
July 9
75%
July 8
13%
July 7
10%

Probability over time

last 30 days
97%July 31 · +2 pts over period99%

What this means

Across 9 outcomes, the market's favourite is July 31 at 99%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of privat…

Resolves: Jul 31, 2026

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