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GPT-5.6 released on...?

24 outcomes · ranked

$618K traded
July 9
64%
July 7
8%
July 14
5%
July 8
4%
July 10
4%
Not released before August
3%
July 21
2%
July 27
2%
July 18
2%
July 24
2%
July 11
1%
July 16
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
44%July 9 · +20 pts over period64%

What this means

Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is July 9 at 64%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public. GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be …

Resolves: Jul 31, 2026

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