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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

11 outcomes · ranked

$274K traded
32°C
99%
31°C
0%
28°C
0%
23°C or below
0%
24°C
0%
25°C
0%
26°C
0%
27°C
0%
29°C
0%
30°C
0%
33°C or higher
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
3%32°C · +97 pts over period100%

What this means

Across 11 outcomes, the market's favourite is 32°C at 99%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Closed Jul 4, 2026 · awaiting resolution

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