How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 6 outcomes, the market's favourite is 4.8% at 13%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
More in Economy
Economy+8 pts
Fed Decision in July?
No change
90%
25 bps increase
10%
25 bps decrease
1%
5 outcomes$38.3M vol
Economy+5 pts
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%
36%
4.0%
20%
4.25%
14%
15 outcomes$6.7M vol
Economy-12 pts
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
61%
Alphabet
17%
Apple
16%
8 outcomes$4.0M vol