How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
Probability over time
Price history isn't available for this market yet. The current probability is 66%, as of Oct 2, 2026.
What this means
Across 7 outcomes, the market's favourite is 12-15 at 66%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/…