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Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

2 outcomes · ranked

$159K traded
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
89%
Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%
6%

Probability over time

last 30 days
88%Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% · +1 pts over period89%

What this means

Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% at 89%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolutio…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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