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Next Claude Opus released by...?

7 outcomes · ranked

$146K traded
December 31
99%
October 31
98%
August 31
95%
July 31
91%
July 24
72%
July 22
53%
July 17
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
51%December 31 · +48 pts over period99%

What this means

Across 7 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31 at 99%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s officia…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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