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Tech & AIAIClaude OpusTech

Next Claude Opus released on...?

10 outcomes · ranked

$227K traded
July 24
25%
No release by July 31
18%
July 28
17%
July 30
14%
July 27
12%
July 31
4%
July 29
3%
July 23
1%
July 25
0%
July 26
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
42%July 24 · -14 pts over period28%

What this means

Across 10 outcomes, the market's favourite is July 24 at 25%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or…

Resolves: Jul 31, 2026

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