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Tech & AIAITechGemini

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

17 outcomes · ranked

$263K traded
No release by July 31
76%
July 30
6%
July 29
5%
July 24
5%
July 21
4%
July 31
3%
July 22
2%
July 17
2%
July 28
2%
July 19
1%
July 23
1%
July 20
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
71%No release by July 31 · +5 pts over period76%

What this means

Across 17 outcomes, the market's favourite is No release by July 31 at 76%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Lab…

Resolves: Jul 31, 2026

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