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OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

Very unlikely

+6 pts$112K traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
13%Yes · -6 pts over period7%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 7% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved +6 pts.

How this resolves

OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar recently suggested that OpenAI would be supportive of a government backstop for its investments in AI infrastructure including chips and data centers. Friar and Open AI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman later backtracked on that statement. You can read more about that here: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/tech/openai-backtracks-government-support-chip-investments. This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI or any financial lender or intermediary involved in providing debt financing to OpenAI receives a U.S. federal government backstop for any debt-transaction undertaken primarily for the benefit of OpenAI’s investments in AI infrastructure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A backstop is defined as any explicit or legally binding loan guarantee, insurance, or equivalent financial instrument through whi…

Closed Jun 30, 2026 · awaiting resolution

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