Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 13% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -40 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government. Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only …
