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When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

2 outcomes · ranked

$186K traded
No return before November 1, 2026
99%
October 1 - 31, 2026
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
71%No return before November 1, 2026 · +29 pts over period99%

What this means

Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is No return before November 1, 2026 at 99%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps…

Resolves: Nov 1, 2026Source of truth: https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100

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