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Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

23 outcomes · ranked

$157K traded
Mariah Carey
89%
Playboi Carti
60%
Lil Baby
53%
Morgan Wallen
53%
Sabrina Carpenter
51%
Post Malone
51%
Peso Pluma
50%
Billie Eilish
44%
Tyler, The Creator
42%
Kendrick Lamar
41%
Travis Scott
40%
Zach Bryan
40%

Probability over time

last 30 days
90%Mariah Carey · -1 pts over period89%

What this means

Across 23 outcomes, the market's favourite is Mariah Carey at 89%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Fr…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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