Skip to content
CultureMusicCulturebillboard

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

23 outcomes · ranked

$181K traded
Mariah Carey
96%
Morgan Wallen
27%
Doja Cat
26%
Kendrick Lamar
22%
Post Malone
21%
Sabrina Carpenter
20%
Lil Baby
16%
SZA
14%
Travis Scott
14%
Ed Sheeran
13%
The Weeknd
13%
Future
12%

Probability over time

last 30 days
80%Mariah Carey · +16 pts over period96%

What this means

Across 23 outcomes, the market's favourite is Mariah Carey at 96%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Fr…

Resolves: Jan 2, 2027

More in Culture