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Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

23 outcomes · ranked

$165K traded
Mariah Carey
72%
Peso Pluma
51%
Kendrick Lamar
33%
Morgan Wallen
32%
Sabrina Carpenter
32%
Post Malone
30%
The Weeknd
27%
Billie Eilish
27%
Playboi Carti
22%
Doja Cat
18%
Zach Bryan
14%
Frank Ocean
13%

Probability over time

last 30 days
89%Mariah Carey · -17 pts over period73%

What this means

Across 23 outcomes, the market's favourite is Mariah Carey at 72%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Fr…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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