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Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?

5 outcomes · ranked

$140K traded
Avengers: Doomsday
56%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
42%
Toy Story 5
0%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
0%
Dune: Messiah
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
44%Avengers: Doomsday · +13 pts over period56%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is Avengers: Doomsday at 56%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position afte…

Resolves: Feb 1, 2027

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