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CulturePoliticsElectionsPresident

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

24 outcomes · ranked

$226K traded
Pete Buttigieg
97%
Andy Beshear
91%
Ron DeSantis
89%
Rahm Emanuel
85%
Ted Cruz
85%
J.B. Pritzker
83%
Gavin Newsom
82%
Wes Moore
77%
J.D. Vance
71%
Josh Shapiro
70%
Mark Kelly
69%
Cory Booker
67%

Probability over time

last 30 days
62%Pete Buttigieg · +35 pts over period97%

What this means

Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is Pete Buttigieg at 97%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves: Jan 1, 2028

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