Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
22 outcomes · ranked
$231K tradedProbability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 22 outcomes, the market's favourite is Vladimir Putin at 66%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that th…
