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Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?

22 outcomes · ranked

$231K traded
Vladimir Putin
66%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
48%
Emmanuel Macron
48%
Alex Jones
42%
Zohran Mamdani
40%
Jerome Powell
38%
Tucker Carlson
26%
Freidrich Merz
10%
Candace Owens
8%
Keir Starmer
8%
Elon Musk
8%
Norah O'Donnell
8%

Probability over time

last 30 days
9%Vladimir Putin · +57 pts over period66%

What this means

Across 22 outcomes, the market's favourite is Vladimir Putin at 66%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that th…

Resolves: Jul 31, 2026

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