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Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

24 outcomes · ranked

$152K traded
Jon Ossoff
95%
Kathy Hochul
51%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
31%
Tucker Carlson
31%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
28%
Candace Owens
23%
Megyn Kelly
21%
Letitia James
20%
Alex Jones
19%
Melania Trump
18%
Andy Burnham
16%
Hillary Clinton
16%

Probability over time

last 30 days
59%Jon Ossoff · +37 pts over period95%

What this means

Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is Jon Ossoff at 95%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself o…

Resolves: Sep 30, 2026

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