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Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

4 outcomes · ranked

$184K traded
Letitia James
30%
Hillary Clinton
12%
Zohran Mamdani
4%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
3%

Probability over time

last 30 days
52%Letitia James · -21 pts over period31%

What this means

Across 4 outcomes, the market's favourite is Letitia James at 30%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself o…

Closed Sep 30, 2026 · awaiting resolution

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