Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 100% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward yes, though it's far from settled. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces a qualifying extension of access to "Claude Fable 5" beyond July 19, 2026, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying extension requires Fable 5 to remain included in standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on at least one of the Pro, Max, or Team plans. An extension covering only the Enterprise plan does not qualify. The percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as some portion of the included allowanc…