Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
3 outcomes · ranked
$133K tradedProbability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 3 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31, 2028 at 74%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artific…