Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 16% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -16 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.