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Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

24 outcomes · ranked

$143K traded
July 11
94%
July 28
94%
July 10
93%
July 31
93%
July 13
92%
July 17
92%
July 29
92%
July 12
92%
July 15
92%
July 16
92%
July 18
92%
July 25
92%

Probability over time

last 30 days
73%July 11 · +21 pts over period94%

What this means

Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is July 11 at 94%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject…

Resolves: Jul 31, 2026

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