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Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

18 outcomes · ranked

$164K traded
August 29
93%
August 31
93%
August 17
92%
August 24
92%
August 28
92%
August 21
92%
August 22
92%
August 25
92%
August 27
92%
August 14
91%
August 18
91%
August 20
91%

Probability over time

last 30 days
43%August 29 · +51 pts over period93%

What this means

Across 18 outcomes, the market's favourite is August 29 at 93%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post…

Resolves: Aug 31, 2026

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