AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
84%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 84% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward yes, though it's far from settled. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -2 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026