Anthropic lab leak by...?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is June 30, 2027 at 9%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.