Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
5 outcomes · ranked
$10.2M tradedProbability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is Democrats Sweep at 49%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the…