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Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

4 outcomes · ranked

$170K traded
60%+
39%
65%+
19%
70%+
14%
75%+
7%

Probability over time

last 30 days
43%60%+ · -4 pts over period39%

What this means

Across 4 outcomes, the market's favourite is 60%+ at 39%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may …

Resolves: Jan 1, 2027Source of truth: https://agi.safe.ai/

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